Real estate investors often spend endless hours debating prices, payment plans, and finishing levels,yet they miss the most important metric in any coastal investment: tourism demand × occupancy.

This simple formula is one of the most powerful predictors of rental performance and long-term ROI. It tells you, in minutes, why some destinations deliver 10–14% annual returns… while others barely break even.

And no region in Egypt demonstrates this formula better than the Red Sea, specifically: Hurghada, Sahl Hasheesh, and El Gouna.

In this guide, we break down the science behind the equation and show you how to use real data ’not hype’to choose the strongest investment opportunities in 2025.

What Is the “Tourism Occupancy Index”?

The Tourism Occupancy Index is a simple but highly revealing measure:

Annual number of tourists × Average occupancy rate = Market strength + projected rental performance

This number works as a demand thermometer: it tells you how “hot” a city is, how much rental pressure exists, and how confidently you can expect consistent bookings.

In the world of short-term rentals, especially in Airbnb-driven markets, this is a goldmine. Because the higher the tourism flow and occupancy stability, the:

Higher nightly price
Stronger annual revenue
Faster capital recovery
More stable off-season income

Cities that score high on this index rarely disappoint investors.

Why Foreign Tourism Matters More Than Local Tourism

Local tourism is seasonal.
Foreign tourism is predictable.

Foreign travelers book:

Longer stays
Higher-quality units
More off-season trips
Repeat annual visits

According to WTTC and Egypt Tourism Authority:

International arrivals to Egypt reached 12+ million tourists recently, with a strong concentration in the Red Sea region.
Foreign occupancy is what stabilizes ROI, because it doesn’t follow the same holiday peaks as the local market.

This is why the Tourism Occupancy Index heavily favors coastal cities like Hurghada over destinations that depend on local traffic, such as parts of the North Coast.

Case Study 1: Hurghada — 12 Million Tourists × 65% Occupancy

Hurghada is the backbone of Egypt’s tourism economy.

12 million tourists annually
65% average occupancy across the year
AirDNA confirms strong ADR and stable seasonal patterns
One of Egypt’s highest Airbnb ROI zones (10–14%)

Hurghada wins because it has:

International airports
Year-round visitors
Strong European market (Germany, UK, Italy, Poland)
Massive hotel infrastructure
High tourism resilience
“Sunshine tourism” demand — not seasonal tourism

These factors push demand even higher, with some zones like El Mamsha, Intercontinental, and Marina showing premium nightly prices.

Case Study 2: Sahl Hasheesh — The Red Sea’s High-Occupancy Fortress

If Hurghada is the engine, Sahl Hasheesh is the private club.

It scores exceptionally high on the Tourism Occupancy Index because:

Resorts are closed, gated, and extremely high-end
Demand per unit is higher
ADR (Average Daily Rate) is one of the strongest in Egypt
Occupancy surpasses surrounding areas due to resort tourism
European visitors prefer Sahl Hasheesh for long-stay vacations

Investors here often achieve ROI levels higher than average Hurghada returns, especially with sea-view units.

Case Study 3: El Gouna — Egypt’s Highest Nightly Rates

El Gouna is simply in a category of its own:

The highest nightly price in Egypt
High-end clients
Limited supply vs huge demand
Stable occupancy even during off-season
Strong holiday tourism + international kite-surfing community
Year-round events that drive traffic

Even though El Gouna prices are higher, the Tourism Occupancy Index shows that demand remains solid—making it an excellent rental market with strong resale potential.

What About the North Coast ?

Here’s where the index exposes the reality that marketing doesn’t show:

Tourism: Mostly local
Occupancy: Highly seasonal
Season length: Only 60–70 days
Winter occupancy: Minimal
ADR: Lower than Red Sea premium markets
ROI: Often overstated vs actual performance

This is why many investors achieve 2–4% ROI in the North Coast versus 8–14% in the Red Sea.

The Tourism Occupancy Index eliminates the emotions and shows the truth plainly.

How Tourism × Occupancy Influences Airbnb ROI

Here’s the equation:
More tourists → stronger occupancy → higher revenue → shorter payback period

Airbnb ROI is shaped by:

Number of bookings per year
Occupancy percentage
Nightly price
Season length
Traveler type (foreign vs local)

The Red Sea consistently excels in all of these.

AirDNA shows that Airbnb occupancy in Hurghada and El Gouna stays remarkably stable, even in low season, due to foreign tourism cycles that don’t depend on Arab or Egyptian holidays.

This is why short-term rentals in the Red Sea outperform almost all other Egyptian cities.

2025–2026: Cities Expected to Surge

Based on tourism development plans, WTTC projections, and new infrastructure, the following are expected to spike in demand:

Sahl Hasheesh

Upcoming resorts + expanded marina demand
High foreign tourism penetration
Premium ADR growth expected

Makadi Bay

Gaining attention from European tour operators
Stable occupancy with excellent pricing potential

Ras Abu Soma (Soma Bay)

World-class water sports
High-end gated destinations
Very strong foreign tourism base

Hurghada West & Marina Zones

New hotel supply + airport expansions
Strong Airbnb demand

The Tourism Occupancy Index heavily predicts these areas as Egypt’s top coastal performers for the next two years.

Why Investors Should Use This Formula Before Buying

The power of Tourism × Occupancy lies in its simplicity:

Removes guesswork
Shows you real demand
Predicts ROI with surprising accuracy
Helps you compare cities instantly
Exposes weak markets early
Protects your capital

An apartment in a high-tourism city beats a bigger apartment in a low-tourism city almost every time.

Investors who follow data, not hype, make consistently better decisions—and recover their capital far faster.

If you want to know which Red Sea projects score highest on the Tourism Occupancy Index—and which units deliver the strongest Airbnb ROI—our team at Forsa Real Estate is ready to guide you.

We don’t guess.
We work with WTTC, AirDNA, Google Trends, and 12+ years of Red Sea market data to help you choose investments backed by facts, not promises.

Contact Forsa Real Estate today
Let’s build your investment on data, confidence, and real returns.